五粮液（000858）：Q2务实降速，八代普五竞争地位稳固

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.492 billion yuan, up 2.28% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 15.831 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.10% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.632 billion yuan, down 7.58% year-on-year [3] - The company maintained a stable market share for its flagship product, with a focus on volume growth in the series of products [4] - The distribution model showed slight changes, with both wholesale and direct sales channels achieving revenue growth [5] - The gross margin was slightly pressured due to a decline in unit price, with a Q2 gross margin of 74.69%, down 0.32 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast slightly downward for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of 92.022 billion yuan, 94.365 billion yuan, and 97.108 billion yuan respectively [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan and a net profit of 19.492 billion yuan [2] - Q2 2025 revenue was 15.831 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.632 billion yuan [3] Market Position - The company’s flagship product maintained a stable market share, with revenue from its main product reaching 40.998 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.57% [4] - The sales volume for the flagship product increased by 12.75% year-on-year, while the average price per ton decreased by 7.25% [4] Distribution Channels - The revenue from the wholesale model was 27.925 billion yuan, up 1.20%, while direct sales revenue was 21.195 billion yuan, up 8.60% [5] - The direct sales channel accounted for 43.15% of total revenue in H1 2025 [5] Profitability - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 74.69%, reflecting a slight decline due to lower unit prices [6] - The net profit margin decreased by 2.71 percentage points year-on-year [7] Earnings Forecast - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of 92.022 billion yuan, 94.365 billion yuan, and 97.108 billion yuan respectively [8]