招商蛇口（001979）：更新报告：城市更新机遇带来长期Alpha

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The urban renewal strategy is expected to provide long-term alpha for the company [1] - Urban renewal is a significant long-term strategy for the real estate sector, as emphasized by recent government policies aimed at optimizing urban structures and enhancing quality of life [1][2] - The urban renewal sector has high entry barriers and limited competition, which positions the company favorably for sustained profitability [3][4] - The company is projected to become a leading stock in the future due to its strong sales performance and strategic investment focus [5] Summary by Sections Urban Renewal Strategy - The central government has reiterated the importance of urban renewal as a key strategy for economic growth and improving living standards [1][2] - The recent meetings have highlighted urban renewal as a crucial direction for the real estate industry, indicating a top-down approach to its implementation [2] Competitive Landscape - The urban renewal sector has high entry barriers due to the need for substantial financial strength and comprehensive development capabilities [3] - Only a few developers, including the company, possess the necessary financial resources to participate in urban renewal projects in major cities [3][4] Company Performance - The company achieved a cumulative contracted sales area of 3.9341 million square meters and a sales amount of 104.553 billion yuan from January to July 2025, ranking in the top five [5] - The company focuses on core cities, with 90% of its investment in ten key cities, and 59% of its total investment in first-tier cities [5] - The company has a diversified asset portfolio, with total income from held properties expected to reach 7.464 billion yuan in 2024, a 12% increase year-on-year [5] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.039 billion yuan in 2024, with projections of 4.220 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.622 billion yuan in 2026 [14] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.47 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.56 yuan respectively [14]