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学大教育(000526):盈利能力再提升,政策回暖与旺季共振有望驱动业绩延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [10][16]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 18.27% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 1.916 billion yuan, and a 42.18% increase in net profit, amounting to 230 million yuan [4][5]. - The company is expanding its business model by deepening its traditional education services while also venturing into new areas such as vocational education and cultural services, which are expected to contribute to a second growth curve [5][10]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, with a gross margin of 36.30% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [6][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 48.97 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 1.22 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 79.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.24 [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 3.4 billion yuan for 2025, 4.1 billion yuan for 2026, and 4.7 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding net profits of 253 million yuan, 304 million yuan, and 366 million yuan respectively [10][12]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.07 yuan for 2025, 2.49 yuan for 2026, and 3.01 yuan for 2027, with price-to-earnings ratios decreasing from 24 times in 2025 to 16 times in 2027 [10][12].