Workflow
赛轮轮胎(601058):业绩短期承压,坚定推进全球化产能布局

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21 CNY, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][9][10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance but is firmly advancing its global production capacity layout. The revenue for H1 2025 reached 17.587 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.831 billion CNY, a decrease of 14.90% [9][10]. - The company plans to invest 1.701 billion CNY in a new project to produce 3.3 million all-steel radial tires and 20,000 non-road tires annually, with an expected annual revenue of 3.293 billion CNY and a net profit of 231 million CNY [9][10]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company produced and sold 40.601 million and 39.145 million tires, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.7% and 13.3% [9][10]. - The average price of tire products in Q2 2025 was 445.8 CNY per tire, up 5.85% year-on-year and 6.77% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin for Q2 was 24.35%, showing a slight decrease from Q1 [9][10]. - Revenue from overseas markets in H1 2025 was 13.41 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, while domestic revenue was 3.98 billion CNY, up 9.2% [9][10]. Global Expansion - The company is committed to advancing its global production capacity, with new production bases in Indonesia and Mexico achieving their first tire output within 9 and 12 months, respectively. Additionally, a new project in Egypt is planned with an investment of approximately 291 million USD [9][10]. - The expansion aims to mitigate trade barriers and enhance the company's global supply chain responsiveness and competitiveness [9][10]. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 4.096 billion CNY, 4.594 billion CNY, and 5.172 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.5x, 10.2x, and 9.1x [9][10]. - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 36.018 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.3% [10].