GANYUAN FOODS CO.(SZ:002991) Dongxing Securities·2025-08-29 11:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Ganyuan Food [5][9]. Core Views - Ganyuan Food is currently undergoing a transformation period, facing pressure on its performance, but new channels and products are expected to drive recovery [3][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 945 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 9.34%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, down 55.20% [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Ganyuan Food's revenue was 945 million yuan, a decrease of 9.34% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 75 million yuan, down 55.20%, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 64 million yuan, down 56.01% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved approximately 441 million yuan in revenue, a decline of 3.37% year-on-year, with a net profit of 22 million yuan, down 70.96% [1]. Product Category Performance - The performance of various product categories showed significant divergence, with the comprehensive nut and bean series revenue at 273 million yuan, down 19.92% year-on-year, primarily due to inventory accumulation and the impact of the Spring Festival timing [1]. - The green pea series generated 234 million yuan, down 1.56%, while the broad bean series saw a revenue increase of 2.11% to 125 million yuan, driven by new products [1]. Channel Performance - The distribution channel revenue was 696 million yuan, a decline of 19.84% year-on-year, primarily due to the shift from traditional distribution to direct sales [2]. - E-commerce channel revenue increased by 12.42% to 153 million yuan, driven by significant growth on platforms like Douyin [2]. - Direct sales and other channels saw a substantial increase of 154.63%, indicating strong growth potential during the transition period [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 33.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by changes in channel structure and rising palm oil prices [3]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 18.56%, up 5.27 percentage points year-on-year, due to higher marketing and new product promotion expenses [3]. Future Outlook - The company is in a phase of business adjustment and transformation, with expectations of revenue and profit fluctuations in the short term. However, as channels are optimized and new products gain traction, performance is anticipated to gradually recover [3][4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of 254 million, 372 million, and 439 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.73, 3.99, and 4.71 yuan [4][10].