GANYUAN FOODS CO.(SZ:002991) Dongxing Securities·2025-08-29 12:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Ganyuan Food [5][9]. Core Views - Ganyuan Food is currently undergoing a transformation period, facing pressure on its performance, but new channels and products are expected to drive recovery [12]. - The company reported a revenue of 945 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 9.34%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, down 55.20% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its distribution channels and enhancing product offerings to improve future performance [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Ganyuan Food's revenue was 945 million yuan, a decrease of 9.34% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 75 million yuan, down 55.20% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter alone saw revenue of approximately 441 million yuan, a decline of 3.37% year-on-year, and a net profit of 22 million yuan, down 70.96% year-on-year [1]. Product Category Performance - The performance of various product categories was mixed, with the comprehensive nut and bean series revenue at 273 million yuan, down 19.92% year-on-year, primarily due to inventory accumulation and the impact of the Spring Festival timing [1]. - The green pea series generated 234 million yuan, down 1.56%, while the broad bean series saw a revenue increase of 2.11% to 125 million yuan, driven by new products [1]. Channel Performance - The distribution channels showed significant differentiation, with revenue from the distribution channel at 696 million yuan, down 19.84% year-on-year, while e-commerce revenue increased by 12.42% to 153 million yuan [2]. - The company is shifting from traditional distribution to direct sales, which is expected to enhance profitability in the long term [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 33.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by changes in channel structure and rising palm oil prices [3]. - The sales expense ratio increased significantly due to higher marketing and new product promotion costs, but it is anticipated that these expenses will stabilize as the peak season approaches [3]. Future Outlook - Ganyuan Food is in a transitional phase, with expectations for gradual improvement in revenue and profitability as channel optimization and new product launches take effect [3]. - The company forecasts net profits of 254 million yuan, 372 million yuan, and 439 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.73 yuan, 3.99 yuan, and 4.71 yuan [4][10].