Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 18.00, indicating a potential upside of 24.3% from the current price of HKD 14.48 [2][3][12]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 (1H25) faced pressure due to external environmental changes, increased operational costs, and depreciation from new hospitals. However, there are signs of marginal improvement, with better cash flow and capital allocation expected to enhance shareholder returns. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in performance starting from the second half of 2025 (2H25) [2][6][15]. - The report highlights that the company is reducing new capacity investments, with only one hospital under construction by the end of 2025. This optimization in capital allocation is expected to lead to significant free cash flow growth [6][15]. - The introduction of new hospitals and advancements in medical technology are expected to drive future growth, with the management projecting monthly profitability for a newly opened hospital in 2H25 [6][15]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 4,158 million, a decrease of 16.6% from previous forecasts. The gross profit is expected to be RMB 1,160 million, reflecting a 23.0% decline [15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 509 million for 2025, down 31.6% from earlier estimates [15]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including a decrease in gross margin to 27.9% for 2025, compared to 30.2% previously [15][17].
海吉亚医疗（06078）：1H25承压但边际改善信号已现，前置投入驱动新增长，维持买入