Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-29 12:56Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The asphalt market shows no better - than - expected performance during the peak season. In the short term, it mainly follows cost fluctuations. The supply side remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and capital shortages, with the overall fundamentals weakening month - on - month. In the medium - to - long term, demand is expected to improve as construction conditions get better in autumn, but there will still be a lot of rainfall in stages. The reform of consumption tax in Shandong has not been further expanded, so South China remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the next month is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile of 8.95% over the past three years [1]. - As of August 29, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3510 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton from a week ago), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 20 yuan/ton from a week ago), the North China spot price was 3650 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, unchanged from a week ago), and the South China spot price was 3500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton from a week ago) [7]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short sell the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 25% in the range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, those with short spot positions can buy the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 50% in the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3. Core Contradictions - Supply side: Stable [2]. - Demand side: Affected by rainfall and capital shortages, demand cannot be effectively released, with weak performance during the peak season. However, it is expected to improve in the medium - to - long term as construction conditions get better in autumn [2]. - Cost side: After the meeting between US and Russian leaders and OPEC's production increase, the tight supply expectation of asphalt cost has been alleviated [2]. 3.4. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors: Small pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low start - up rate with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of over - capacity reduction [6]. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival of Ma Rui crude oil, the short - term drag on demand by the rainy season in the South, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in the start - up rate driven by the consumption tax reform in Shandong [6].