山西汾酒（600809）：省外稳定增长，全国化持续推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) is "Recommended" [1][4][5] Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in markets outside its home province, with ongoing national expansion efforts. The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.5 billion yuan, up 1.1% year-on-year [4][7] - The report indicates that the overall consumption environment may be under pressure in the second half of the year, leading to adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [7][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with net profit of 1.9 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year [4][7] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 71.9%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decline in product mix [7][9] Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2025, revenue from Fenjiu was 7.2 billion yuan, up 0.6% year-on-year, while other liquor revenue was 220 million yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year [7] - Revenue from wholesale channels in Q2 2025 was 6.9 billion yuan, an increase of 0.3% year-on-year, while group purchase and e-commerce direct sales generated 500 million yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year [7] Future Projections - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 11.9 billion, 12.7 billion, and 14.1 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [7][9] - Long-term growth is expected to be driven by the full price range of products, including Qinghua, Laobai Fen, and Bolan [7][9] Key Financial Metrics - For 2025, the projected revenue is 36.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% [6][9] - The projected gross margin for 2025 is 73.9%, with a net margin of 32.5% [9]