CSCEC(SH:601668) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-29 13:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][18]. Core Views - The company maintains steady growth in revenue and profit, with a notable improvement in cash flow [1][3]. - The real estate business focuses on core cities and actively replenishes land reserves, despite a decline in contract sales [2][13]. - The company has significantly improved cash flow management and offers an attractive dividend yield [3][17]. Revenue and Profit - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1,108.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year [1][9]. - The gross profit margin remained stable at 9.43%, while the net profit margin increased by 0.12 percentage points to 3.63% [1][12]. Real Estate Business - The real estate segment reported contract sales of 174.5 billion yuan, down 8.9% year-on-year, with a sales area of 6.33 million square meters, down 3.3% [2][13]. - The company acquired 5.2 million square meters of new land reserves, a 52.6% increase year-on-year, focusing on core urban areas [2][13]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The company experienced a net cash outflow from operating activities of 82.8 billion yuan, which is 16 billion yuan less than the previous year, with a cash collection ratio of 93.7% [3][17]. - The dividend payout ratio is projected to increase to 25%, with an estimated dividend yield of 5.4% for 2025 [3][17]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 49.3 billion yuan, 50.7 billion yuan, and 52.0 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [18][23]. - The estimated earnings per share for the next three years are projected to be 1.19 yuan, 1.22 yuan, and 1.25 yuan [18][23].