YILI(SH:600887) Guoyuan Securities·2025-08-29 14:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 61.933 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.37%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.200 billion yuan, down 4.39%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.016 billion yuan, up 31.78% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 28.915 billion yuan, an increase of 5.77%, with a net profit of 2.326 billion yuan, up 44.65%, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.387 billion yuan, up 49.48% [1]. - The decline in liquid milk revenue has narrowed, while the revenue growth of milk powder, dairy products, and ice cream products has led the growth [1]. - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 36.05%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 34.19%, up 0.61 percentage points [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, ice cream products, and other products was 36.126 billion, 16.578 billion, 8.229 billion, and 386 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.06%, +14.26%, +12.39%, and -5.05%. In Q2 2025, the revenue for each product was -0.85%, +9.65%, +37.96%, and -3.05% [1]. - The company’s distribution and direct sales channels showed steady revenue growth, with H1 revenue from distributors and direct sales at 59.357 billion and 1.961 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 3.31% and 17.34% [1]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth was steady in North China, South China, and Central China, with all regions achieving positive growth in Q2 2025. H1 revenue for these regions was 17.140 billion, 15.080 billion, and 11.362 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +2.04%, +2.54%, and +3.31% [1]. Profitability and Forecast - The company’s net profit margin for H1 2025 was 11.63%, down 0.94 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced investment income. However, the net profit margin for Q2 2025 improved to 8.05%, up 2.16 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved gross margins and reduced sales and financial expense ratios [2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 11.250 billion, 12.012 billion, and 12.663 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.09%, 6.77%, and 5.42% [3].