山西汾酒（600809）：营收稳健增长，Q2盈利承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu with a target price of 212.80 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 197.61 CNY [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 23.964 billion CNY for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.505 billion CNY, up 1.13% year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.441 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.45% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 13.50% to 1.857 billion CNY [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For H1 2025, revenue from Fenjiu and other liquor categories was 23.391 billion CNY and 0.484 billion CNY, respectively, showing increases of 5.75% and a decrease of 10.55% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue from Fenjiu was 7.179 billion CNY, up 0.56%, while other liquor categories saw a decline of 3.54% to 0.216 billion CNY [5]. - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 76.65%, down 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, while Q2 2025 saw a gross margin of 71.88%, down 3.21 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Regional Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from within Shanxi province was 8.73 billion CNY, up 4.0% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 15.14 billion CNY, up 6.1% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, the provincial revenue decreased by 5.3% to 2.65 billion CNY, while external revenue increased by 4.0% to 4.75 billion CNY [5]. Financial Forecast - The report projects revenue growth rates of 2%, 6%, and 6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit growth rates are forecasted at -2%, 8%, and 8% for the same years. The expected earnings per share (EPS) are 9.83 CNY, 10.64 CNY, and 11.49 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][8].