SDIC Power(SH:600886) Xinda Securities·2025-08-31 04:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotou Electric Power is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 remained stable, with significant growth in hydropower generation from the Yalong River basin, while thermal power and renewable energy segments faced challenges [4][8] - The hydropower business is expected to contribute significantly to future earnings due to improved water inflow and the release of generation capacity from new power stations [8] - The company is projected to see a steady increase in net profit and earnings per share (EPS) from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 8.2%, 3.4%, and 2.0% [8] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 25.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.795 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.36% [2] - The hydropower segment generated revenue of 12.572 billion yuan, up 7.9% year-on-year, while the thermal power segment saw a revenue decline of 23.6% to 8.937 billion yuan [3] - The average on-grid electricity price decreased by 6.4% year-on-year to 0.353 yuan/kWh in the first half of 2025 [5][6] Segment Analysis - Hydropower: The Yalong River basin benefited from abundant water inflow, leading to a 10.33% increase in hydropower generation to 47.508 billion kWh in the first half of 2025 [4] - Thermal Power: The segment faced a 21.48% decline in electricity generation to 20.790 billion kWh due to competition from clean energy sources [4] - Renewable Energy: The segment saw an 18.08% increase in electricity generation to 6.881 billion kWh, driven by an increase in installed capacity [4] Future Outlook - The Yalong River hydropower business is expected to maintain robust growth, with significant potential for additional installed capacity [8] - The company plans to increase its renewable energy capacity significantly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a target of 14.72 million kW [8] - The overall growth potential in the renewable energy sector is promising, with a projected increase of over 5 million kW in installed capacity by 2025 [8]