NHD(SZ:002946) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-31 04:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.53 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.8% year-on-year. For Q2 2025, revenue was 2.90 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.5% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 263 million yuan, an increase of 27.4% year-on-year. The profit exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [6][9] - The company is focusing on core categories and channels, particularly low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, while also enhancing direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales channels. The company has significantly increased its mid-term dividend, distributing 0.7 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 60.25 million yuan, which represents 15% of H1 profits, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the liquid milk segment generated revenue of 5.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The low-temperature product category saw sales growth exceeding 10%, with high-end fresh milk and the "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" achieving double-digit growth. The "Active Moist" series experienced over 40% growth, and new products maintained a double-digit share [7][8] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 30.5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the growth of high-margin low-temperature products and internal structural optimization. The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 9.1%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [8][9] - The company expects stable raw milk prices and a reduction in competitive pricing pressures, which may support further gross margin improvements in the second half of the year. Overall, the company anticipates a continued enhancement in profitability metrics [8][9] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 11.197 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 717 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.3%. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.83 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.7 times [10][12]