盐湖股份（000792）：2025年半年报点评：钾肥量稳价扬稳固业绩，低成本锂盐产能持续扩张

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved stable performance in potassium fertilizer with price increases, while low-cost lithium salt production capacity continues to expand [4]. - The company reported H1 2025 revenue of 6.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.52 billion yuan, an increase of 13.7% year-on-year [1]. - The lithium carbonate production and sales showed a steady increase, but prices faced significant pressure, with average prices dropping by 26.1% and 38.2% in Q1 and Q2 respectively [2]. - The potassium chloride business saw stable production and price increases, with a contract price for 2025 of $346 per ton, a 27% increase year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.78 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.7% [1]. - The revenue from lithium products was 1.24 billion yuan with a gross margin of 50.0%, down 10.2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The potassium products generated revenue of 5.37 billion yuan with a gross margin of 60.0%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Production and Sales - Lithium carbonate production and sales in H1 2025 were 20,000 tons and 21,000 tons, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.7% and 1.8% [2]. - Potassium chloride production and sales were 1.90 million tons and 1.78 million tons, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.8% and 20.5% [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expanding its low-cost lithium production capacity, with a project expected to double its annual capacity from 40,000 tons to 80,000 tons by the end of September 2025 [4]. - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 5.56 billion, 6.69 billion, and 7.31 billion yuan, respectively [5].