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韵达股份(002120):持续降本提效,看好2H25反内卷背景下业绩修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.2 billion, 22.0 billion, and 24.8 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 11, and 9 times [4]. - The company has shown a stable market share and steady growth in business volume, supported by ongoing digital transformation and cost reduction efforts [4]. - The report highlights the potential for performance recovery in the second half of 2025 due to the "anti-involution" trend in the express delivery industry [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 248.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, while gross profit was 16.8 billion, down 31.5% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 6.8% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 5.3 billion, a decrease of 49.2% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.1% [1]. - For the second quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 126.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with a gross profit of 7.4 billion, down 43.3% year-on-year [2]. Operational Strategy Summary - The company is focused on optimizing its franchise express network and enhancing its logistics ecosystem through digitalization and automation [3]. - As of the first half of 2025, the company has doubled the number of grid warehouses to 1,926 and has 468 collection and distribution centers, improving operational efficiency [3]. - The company is actively deploying drones and unmanned vehicles for last-mile delivery, with ongoing promotions in eight provinces [3].