TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(SZ:002532) Minsheng Securities·2025-08-31 07:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [4][6]. Core Views - The company has seen an increase in both the volume and price of electrolytic aluminum, with expectations for new production capacity to come online [2][3]. - The integrated layout of the company enhances its raw material supply capabilities, which is expected to stabilize performance [3]. - The company is strategically expanding its operations in Indonesia and Guinea to secure resource supply and reduce costs [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Tianshan Aluminum reported revenue of 15.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 20,250 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 2.8% [2]. - The gross profit margin for electrolytic aluminum was 23.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for alumina decreased by 8.6 percentage points to 14.6% [2]. Production Capacity and Cost Structure - The current electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 1.2 million tons, with an actual annual output of approximately 1.16 million tons [2]. - The company is progressing with the construction of an additional 200,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, expected to be released in 2026 [3]. - The company benefits from low energy costs due to its location in Xinjiang, where coal resources are abundant, enhancing its cost advantage [3]. Future Outlook - The company is planning to invest 1.556 billion USD in a new 2 million tons alumina production line in Indonesia, with the first phase of 1 million tons already receiving environmental approval [3]. - The company has secured a 50% stake in Elite Mining Guinea S.A. and exclusive purchasing rights for bauxite, with a planned annual capacity of 5-6 million tons [3]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.71 billion yuan, 5.74 billion yuan, and 6.33 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10, 8, and 7 [4][5].