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伯特利(603596):2025Q2业绩短暂承压,盈利能力环比改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 75.3 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 47.69 CNY [5][8]. Core Insights - The company experienced a temporary pressure on its Q2 2025 performance, with revenue of 2.526 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19.66% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.25%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 252 million CNY, up 1.8% year-on-year but down 6.8% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The next-generation braking technology, EMB, has seen regulatory progress that exceeds expectations, positioning the company as a core player in the EMB sector. The new regulations will take effect on January 1, 2026, and the company has successfully developed its first functional EMB prototype [3]. - The company is accelerating its global customer expansion, with ongoing capacity expansion at its Mexico plant [4]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 1.52 billion CNY, 2.02 billion CNY, and 2.71 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 14.3, and 10.7 [5][14]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 19.19%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.56 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.22 percentage points. The main business gross margin was 17.24%, reflecting improved profitability despite cost pressures [12]. - The company’s sales volume for smart electronic control in Q2 2025 was 1.4 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 30%, while the sales volume for disc brakes was 870,000 sets, up 22% year-on-year [12]. Capacity and Production - The Mexico plant has achieved a production capacity of 4 million sets for steering knuckles, with plans for further expansion to include 5.5 million sets of aluminum steering knuckles and additional capacities for control arms and EPB [13]. - The company has secured contracts with a North American electric vehicle manufacturer and a German joint venture for lightweight projects, with expected total sales revenues of approximately 1.22 billion USD and 600 million CNY, respectively [13].