山西汾酒（600809）：巩固基础，稳步发展

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 23.964 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.35%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.505 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.13% [1][2] - The product matrix ensures revenue resilience, although profits are under short-term pressure. In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.441 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.45%, and a net profit of 1.857 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively expanding its market presence, particularly in southern China, with revenue from outside the province increasing by 3.95% in Q2 2025 [2] - The use of acceptance bills has impacted cash flow, with a 4% decrease in cash receipts and a 24.59% decline in operating net cash flow year-on-year [2] - The forecast for diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 9.85 yuan, 10.00 yuan, and 10.33 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 31.928 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 21.8%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 36.351 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.9% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 10.438 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.9%. The projected net profit for 2025 is 12.022 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.8% [3] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 75.7% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) projected to decline to 30.5% [3]