Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-31 08:11Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,700 - 17,000 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to the expansion of secondary lead production cuts and the delayed arrival of the peak consumption season for lead-acid batteries, the lead price is expected to fluctuate. The supply side is under pressure, and the demand is weak, but the price has strong bottom support. There are opportunities for long positions at low prices and for calendar spreads in the Shanghai Lead futures [8] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Market Review: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract last week was 16,880 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.60%. The closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,870 yuan, with a decrease of 0.06%. The closing price of LmeS-Lead 3 was 1,988, with a decrease of 0.20% [9] - Futures Price - Spot Price Spread Changes: The LME lead cash - 3 months spread changed from -33.79 to -41.07, a decrease of 7.28. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium changed from -25 to 0, an increase of 25 [9] - Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract last week was 43,853 lots, an increase of 20,908 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 49,182 lots, an increase of 8,017 lots. The trading volume of LmeS-Lead 3 was 5,890 lots, an increase of 771 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [9] - Inventory Changes: The domestic lead inventory decreased slightly from 69,900 tons on August 21st to 67,100 tons on August 28th. The LME lead inventory decreased by 12,000 tons [8][9] Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - Lead Concentrate: The import TC of 60% lead concentrate was -90 US dollars/ton this week. The production of domestic lead concentrate and its import volume have shown different trends over the years. The inventory in Lianyungang has also fluctuated [8][27] - Primary Lead and Secondary Lead: The production of primary lead is under pressure, and smelters in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Qinghai are under maintenance. The scope of production cuts for secondary lead enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Anhui, and Jiangxi is expanding due to policy impacts and continuous losses [8] - By - products of Primary Lead: The prices of 1 silver and 98% sulfuric acid in the East China region have fluctuated over the years, and the output of silver by - products has also changed [36][37] - Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and its profitability have all shown different trends over the years [38][39][40][41] - Imports and Exports: The net import of refined lead, the import volume of lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots have all fluctuated over the years [42] Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and End - Users - Batteries: The peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries has not arrived. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has decreased, and large battery manufacturers have started to reduce prices to transfer inventory to dealers. The export volume of batteries has also changed over the years [8][45] - Consumption and End - Users: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles, and the total monthly production of motorcycles have all shown different trends over the years [47]