Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-31 08:23Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week from August 25 - 31, the spot market for live pigs showed weak and volatile prices. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand led to an increase in slaughter volume. The futures market also had a weak performance, and the basis structure switched. Looking ahead to September 1 - 7, the spot price of live pigs will run weakly, with both supply and demand increasing but limited rebound space. For the futures market, different contract opportunities and price ranges are suggested [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Market Review (8.25 - 8.31) - Spot Market: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 31.35 yuan/kg (last week: 33.1 yuan/kg), the live pig price in Henan was 13.78 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1600 yuan/head (last week: 1611 yuan/head). The supply was relatively loose, and the demand led to an increase in slaughter volume, with some speculative demand for warehousing and secondary fattening starting. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 123.6KG (last week: 123.8KG), a 0.16% decrease [1]. - Futures Market: The LH2509 contract of live pig futures had a high of 13875 yuan/ton, a low of 13010 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13015 yuan/ton (last week: 13760 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 765 yuan/ton (last week: 20 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (9.1 - 9.7) - Spot Market: The spot price of live pigs will run weakly. In August, the spot price was lower than expected. From the supply side, the supply of standard pigs will increase significantly from August, and the supply pressure in September is also large. From the demand side, there is a seasonal demand increase in September, but overall, the rebound space in September is limited [3]. - Futures Market: The price of the LH2601 contract on August 29 was 13870 yuan/ton. It is expected that the basis structure of the November contract will change to a contango structure in advance. The November contract is under pressure, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread. The price of piglets is expected to continue to fall in September, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of purchased - for - fattening pigs after March, and attention can be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March and May contracts. The short - term support level of the LH2601 contract is 13500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - Basis and Spread: This week's basis was 765 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 spread was - 315 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply Data: This week's average weight was 123.6KG (last week: 123.8KG). In June, the pork production was 5.295 billion tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase; in July, the pork import was 8.83 million tons, a 0.18% month - on - month decrease [12].