煤焦周度观点-20250831

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot performance of coal and coke is relatively weak, limiting the upward driving force of futures prices. Although the overall supply increment of upstream is limited, the suppression of coking coal demand and the decline of trading sentiment outweigh the impact of the supply side. This week, coking coal inventory has accumulated significantly at the port end, and coke inventory has not decreased significantly due to supply suppression. Therefore, the coal and coke futures prices have declined towards the spot price. However, there coexist the incremental risk of future supply and the support of high molten iron production downstream. In the short term, the prices of coal and coke may show a volatile and repeated trend [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Affected by previous accident news and upcoming major events, the release of incremental production in coal-producing areas is limited, and the weekly output of raw coal in the FW caliber is basically flat compared with the previous week. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance efficiency of the Ganqimaodu Port has declined, and the number of passing vehicles has dropped from the high level. However, the number of passing vehicles at the Ceke Port has increased significantly compared with the previous week. Therefore, the overall passing volume still remains at a year-on-year high [3] - The daily average output of independent coking plants is 64.52 (-0.93), and the daily average output of steel mills and coking enterprises is 46.09 (-0.64) [8] 3.2 Demand - Affected by major events in the north, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants has dropped sharply recently, and the spot profit of coke has further increased compared with the previous week. The downstream steel mills' production still remains at a relatively high level, providing strong support for the immediate consumption demand of coke and iron ore spot [4] - The molten iron output is 240.13 (-0.62) [8] 3.3 Macro - In August, the manufacturing PMI increased slightly compared with the previous month but still remained below the 50 boom-bust line. Recently, domestic listed entities have concentrated on releasing their semi-annual reports, and the profit performance continues to provide support for the trading sentiment of macro risk appetite. However, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the overpricing of strong macro expectations and the potential risk of a rapid decline in risk appetite [5] 3.4 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 860.45 (+0.02), FW cleaned coal 444.54 (+1.80) | Independent coking plants' daily average 64.52 (-0.93), steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.09 (-0.64) | | Demand | Molten iron output 240.13 (-0.62) | Molten iron output 240.13 (-0.62) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +17.3, mine raw coal +1.0, mine cleaned coal +8.0, independent coking -5.1, steel mill coking -0.5, port +13.9, FW port -6.0 | MS total inventory -1.1, independent coking +0.9, steel mill +0.5, port -2.5 | | Profit | Commodity coal 424 (-4) | Average profit of coking enterprises -55 (+32) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1145 | Rizhao quasi-first-grade coke warehouse receipt 1525 | 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - Coking Coal Futures: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of coking coal 2601 was 986.5, a decrease of 33.5 compared with the previous day; the closing price of coking coal 2509 was 1510, a decrease of 15 compared with the previous day [62] - Coke Futures: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of coke 2509 was 1481, an increase of 102.5 compared with the previous day; the closing price of coke 2601 was 2740, an increase of 1424 compared with the previous day [64] - Coal and Coke Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 is shown in the report [67] - Coal and Coke Spot: The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are shown in the report [70] - Coal and Coke Basis: The spot price performance is relatively stable, the futures price has declined, and the basis of coal and coke has both narrowed [73]