劲仔食品（003000）：25Q2点评：静待调整见效

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][7]. Core Views - The company is currently in an adjustment phase, with performance under pressure due to intensified external competition and diminishing channel benefits. However, there are expectations for gradual improvement in the second half of the year, alongside the anticipation of new product launches [5][8]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are updated to 2.543 billion, 2.790 billion, and 3.078 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.4%, 9.7%, and 10.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 251 million, 333 million, and 390 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -13.9%, +32.9%, and +17.1% respectively [5][9]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 528 million yuan, a decrease of 10.37%, and a net profit of 44 million yuan, down 36.27%. For the first half of 2025, revenue was 1.124 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.5%, with a net profit of 112 million yuan, down 21.86% [8]. - In terms of product categories, revenue for fish products and bean products increased by 7.6% and 3.6% respectively, while poultry products saw a decline of 24.0% [8]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 1.8 percentage points in Q2 2025, primarily due to rising fish dry costs, leading to a net profit margin decline of 3.4 percentage points [8]. Channel Performance - In the first half of 2025, offline revenue grew by 0.9% while online revenue decreased by 6.8%. The offline channel showed growth in bulk sales, but modern and circulation channels performed weakly. Online sales, particularly on platforms like Douyin, faced significant adjustments, with overall GMV down 24% [8][9].