QIANHE(SH:603027) EBSCN·2025-08-31 09:31Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Qianhe Flavor Industry (603027.SH) with a current price of 12.33 CNY [1] Core Views - Qianhe Flavor Industry's H1 2025 revenue was 1.318 billion CNY, down 17.07% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 173 million CNY, down 30.81% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 487 million CNY, down 29.86% year-on-year, and net profit was 13 million CNY, down 86.66% year-on-year [5][6] - The company faced significant pressure on its core product categories, with soy sauce revenue at 839 million CNY (down 16.09%) and vinegar revenue at 159 million CNY (down 21.51%) in H1 2025. The decline in revenue was exacerbated in Q2 2025, with soy sauce and vinegar revenues down 31.06% and 35.40% respectively [6] - Despite short-term performance challenges, the company is advancing its long-term strategy, including the completion of a new production line with an annual capacity of 600,000 tons, which is expected to enhance efficiency and support future growth [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2025 gross margin was 36.58%, up 0.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material costs. However, the period expense ratio increased to 21.46%, up 3.57 percentage points year-on-year, impacting net profit margin, which was 13.16%, down 2.61 percentage points year-on-year [7] - In Q2 2025, gross margin decreased to 32.64%, with net profit margin at 2.62%, down 11.15 percentage points year-on-year [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2025-2027, with estimates of 431 million CNY, 536 million CNY, and 623 million CNY respectively, reflecting downward adjustments of 24.4%, 15.3%, and 10.9% from previous forecasts [8][9] - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 2.851 billion CNY, with a growth rate of -7.22% [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-quality and healthy product offerings, launching premium products like Matsutake and Truffle soy sauces to optimize its product matrix [8] - The company continues to enhance its distributor network, with a total of 3,307 distributors by the end of Q2 2025, reflecting a net increase of 25 distributors [7]