水井坊（600779）：Q2释放压力，期待动销恢复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.498 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 12.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 105 million yuan, down 56.52% year-on-year [2]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant revenue drop of 31.37% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing pressure in traditional consumption scenarios such as business banquets and a slower market recovery pace [3]. - The company is actively adjusting its strategies, including "dual brands" and "one city, one policy," with expectations for sales recovery and a return to growth [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 539 million yuan, with a net profit of -85 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 251.25% [2][3]. - The sales gross margin for Q2 2025 was 74.42%, down 7.13 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by product mix changes and increased promotional expenses [4]. - Cash receipts from sales in Q2 2025 were 991 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.54%, indicating improved cash flow management [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised down to 1.071 billion yuan and 1.164 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a 27% reduction from previous estimates [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.20, 2.39, and 2.56 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21, 20, and 18 times [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on inventory digestion and has slowed down its shipment pace due to higher-than-expected channel inventory levels post-Spring Festival [3]. - The revenue from high-end products in Q2 2025 was 454 million yuan, down 36.96% year-on-year, while mid-range products saw a revenue increase of 67.68% [3].