Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Huali Industrial Group [2]. Core Insights - Huali Industrial Group's profitability is under short-term pressure, primarily due to weaker orders from existing customers and inefficiencies in newly launched factories. However, new brand expansions are expected to contribute positively in the long term [3][8]. - The company has experienced a decline in gross margin, which is viewed as a temporary phase influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariff policies and operational challenges in new factories [15]. Financial Performance Summary - For 1H25, Huali Industrial reported revenue of RMB 12.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. The gross profit was RMB 2.77 billion, down 14.6% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 21.8%, which is a decrease of 6.4 percentage points [3][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 1H25 was RMB 1.67 billion, reflecting an 11.0% decline year-on-year, with a net margin of 12.4% [3][12]. - The company’s capital expenditure in 1H25 was RMB 1.38 billion, primarily due to intensive capacity investments [7][14]. Sales and Customer Dynamics - Footwear sales volume reached 117 million pairs in 1H25, up 8.1% year-on-year, but growth slowed in 2Q25 due to cautious ordering from core customers amid changing tariff policies [4][13]. - The revenue contribution from the top five clients decreased from 76.6% to 71.9%, indicating a diversification in the customer base, which is expected to enhance earnings resilience [4][13]. Capacity and Production - The company’s capacity utilization was 95.8% in 1H25, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, as several new factories were still ramping up production [5][14]. - Huali Industrial has launched six new factories since 2024, including facilities for Adidas and New Balance, which are expected to contribute to future growth [5][14]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 26.345 billion, RMB 29.706 billion, and RMB 33.304 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 12.8%, and 12.1% respectively [15]. - The forecasted attributable net profit for the same period is RMB 3.548 billion, RMB 4.158 billion, and RMB 4.951 billion, with growth rates of -7.6%, 17.2%, and 19.1% respectively [15].
华利集团（300979）：1H25盈利水平短期承压，新品牌拓展贡献增量