YTO(SH:600233) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-09-01 00:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong profitability in a competitive environment, with expected earnings elasticity due to anti-competitive policies being implemented across the industry [6][8] - The company achieved a revenue of 35.883 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.831 billion yuan, down 7.90% year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the nationwide rollout of anti-competitive measures, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 4.571 billion, 5.835 billion, and 6.695 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 13.93%, 27.64%, and 14.73% [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023 is 57.684 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.74%, increasing to 69.033 billion yuan in 2024 with a growth rate of 19.67% [7] - The company's net profit for 2023 is projected at 3.723 billion yuan, with a decline of 5.03%, followed by an increase to 4.012 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 7.78% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.09 yuan in 2023 to 1.34 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding increase in return on equity (ROE) from 12.93% to 13.08% [7][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company maintained a market share of 16.0% in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points, and a significant volume growth of 21.84% [8] - The company has increased its capital expenditure to 4.43 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 64% increase year-on-year, to support its competitive strategy [8] - The company is leveraging AI and smart technologies to enhance operational efficiency, with a notable reduction in core costs per package [8]