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芯原股份(688521):Q2盈利能力持续向好,中国AIASIC龙头扬帆起航

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 15% [11]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 974 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.49%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 320 million yuan. In Q2 2025, revenue was approximately 584 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 49.90%, with the net loss narrowing by 54.8% compared to Q1 [1][3]. - The significant growth in Q2 performance was driven by increases in intellectual property licensing fees and mass production business revenue, with licensing fees reaching 187 million yuan, up 16.97% year-on-year and 99.63% quarter-on-quarter, and mass production revenue at 261 million yuan, up 11.65% year-on-year and 79.01% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The demand for AI ASICs is strong, with new and existing orders reaching a historical high. In Q2 2025, the company signed new orders worth 1.182 billion yuan, a nearly 150% increase quarter-on-quarter, and the total order backlog reached 3.025 billion yuan, up 23.17% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company has been investing in Chiplet technology and its applications in AIGC and smart driving for five years, establishing a core barrier through high R&D investment. In Q2, the proportion of R&D expenses decreased by 25.76 percentage points [3]. - Future revenue projections are optimistic, with expected revenues of 2.996 billion yuan, 4.621 billion yuan, and 6.077 billion yuan for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.0%, 54.2%, and 31.5% [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 974 million yuan, with a net loss of 320 million yuan. Q2 revenue was 584 million yuan, with a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 49.90% and a reduced net loss of 99 million yuan [1][3]. - The company anticipates revenues of 2.996 billion yuan in 2025E, 4.621 billion yuan in 2026E, and 6.077 billion yuan in 2027E, with corresponding net profits projected to improve significantly over the years [5]. Business Segments - The growth in Q2 was primarily driven by intellectual property licensing and mass production, with licensing fees at 187 million yuan and mass production revenue at 261 million yuan [3]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with 3.025 billion yuan in orders, of which nearly 90% is from ASIC business, providing a solid foundation for future revenue [3]. R&D and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on Chiplet technology and its applications in smart driving, with a strategic shift towards "IP as a Chiplet" [3]. - The expected growth in AI ASIC demand from major internet companies and automotive manufacturers positions the company favorably for future performance [3].