YILI(SH:600887) Guoxin Securities·2025-09-01 02:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 61.78 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.20 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.02 billion yuan, up 31.8% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, total revenue reached 28.92 billion yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 44.6% year-on-year [1][9][4]. Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, cold drinks, and other categories showed year-on-year changes of -2.1%, +14.3%, +12.4%, and -5.1%, respectively, totaling 36.13 billion, 16.58 billion, 8.23 billion, and 0.39 billion yuan. In Q2 2025, the revenue changes were -0.8%, +9.7%, +38.0%, and -3.1%, totaling 16.49 billion, 7.77 billion, 4.12 billion, and 0.20 billion yuan [2][11]. Profitability Improvement - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 34.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in raw milk prices and improvements in product mix. The net profit margin reached 7.94%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [3][12]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 119.34 billion, 122.50 billion, and 125.44 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.1%, 2.6%, and 2.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 11.50 billion, 12.39 billion, and 13.14 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 36.1%, 7.7%, and 6.1% [4][17]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15.4, 14.3, and 13.5 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The company maintains a commitment to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 70% [4][18].