YILI(SH:600887) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-09-01 03:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 was in line with expectations, with a revenue of 61.93 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.20 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue reached 28.91 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.33 billion yuan, up 44.6% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecast, with net profits projected at 10.81 billion yuan, 11.64 billion yuan, and 12.41 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.71 yuan, 1.84 yuan, and 1.96 yuan for the same period, with the current stock price corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.7, 15.5, and 14.6 times [4][8] Business Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's liquid milk, milk powder, and ice cream businesses experienced year-on-year changes of -0.8%, +9.7%, and +38.0%, respectively. The decline in liquid milk was mitigated by a low base from the previous year, while milk powder and ice cream showed strong growth [5][6] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 34.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to sustained cost benefits and ongoing business structure optimization. The net profit margin improved to 8.1%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to see improved supply and demand dynamics in the second half of the year, driven by seasonal demand and the gradual rollout of deep processing capacity. This is anticipated to support steady revenue growth and stable profit margins for the company [7]