Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 1H25 increased by 9.5% year-on-year to 1.49 billion RMB, while net profit rose by 41.6% to 150 million RMB, indicating strong performance driven by robust offline demand [1][7]. - The management has adjusted the 2025 revenue growth forecast to 10%-15% from the previous 25%, citing changes in the macro environment [1][7]. - The company is expected to return to a revenue growth rate of over 20% in 2026 [1]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, the company is projected to achieve sales revenue of 3.445 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.0% [2][8]. - Adjusted net profit for FY25E is estimated at 460 million RMB, with a growth rate of 15.0% [2][8]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is forecasted to be 1.95 RMB [2][8]. Price Target and Valuation - The target price is set at 48.28 HKD, down from a previous target of 52.75 HKD, representing a potential upside of 48.6% from the current stock price of 32.50 HKD [3][7]. - The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation indicates a per-share value of 48.28 HKD, based on a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.2% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [10][11]. Shareholder Structure - The largest shareholder is Tu Zhiliang, holding 34.2% of the shares, followed by Ruiyuan Fund with 8.0% [4]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a decline in absolute returns over the past month (-8.2%) and three months (-11.6%) [5]. Business Development - The company opened 7 new stores in 1H25, bringing the total to 83, and plans to add approximately 15 more stores in 2025 [7]. - The number of doctors in the network increased by 1,501 in 1H25, with a 23.5% year-on-year growth in offline doctors [7]. AI Initiatives - The company has launched AI initiatives, including the first "Famous Doctor AI Avatar," which is expected to generate significant revenue in the future [7]. Shareholder Returns - In 1H25, the company repurchased shares worth 84.69 million HKD, equivalent to 50% of net profit, and declared a mid-term dividend of 75.77 million RMB, also 50% of net profit [7].
固生堂（02273）：客单价企稳，业绩有望回到加速通道