Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-01 05:21Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core factors affecting the EC price trend this week are the weak demand in the off - season and the continuous decline of the spot cabin quotes for European routes in early September by major shipping companies, which has led to a decrease in the valuation of futures prices [2]. - The short - term futures price valuation is still relatively weak, but the ruling by the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump are illegal brings some positive macro - sentiment, and there is a relatively high possibility of a slight short - term rebound in the futures price [7]. - If the cease - fire agreement in Gaza is reached again or other geopolitical risks in the Middle East suddenly decrease, leading to the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea, the freight rates for European routes will significantly decline. Also, the off - season demand may further weaken in the following months, and the support from demand during peak seasons like December may be relatively weak [8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Factors - The EC price is highly positively correlated with the spot cabin quotes for European routes. Currently, the market is in the off - season, with a significant decline in booking demand and weakened support for European route freight rates [2]. - In the short - term, the futures price may slightly rebound due to positive macro - sentiment, while in the long - term, if the Red Sea resumes shipping and the off - season demand weakens, the European route freight rates will decline [7][8]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: The market is in the middle of a downward trend. The short - term support level for the main contract is in the range of 1200 - 1250, and the pressure level is in the range of 1310 - 1360 [15]. - Strategy Suggestions: Considering the off - season and weak demand, one can choose to sell for hedging at high positions, with the recommended entry range being 1350 - 1400 [15]. - Spot - Futures (Basis) Strategy: Traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [15]. - Arbitrage (Inter - period) Strategy: It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [15]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions: For companies with full shipping capacity or poor booking volume, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits when they are worried about falling freight rates. For companies concerned about rising freight rates, they can buy container shipping index futures to determine booking costs in advance [14]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Comprehensive Freight Index: The FBX comprehensive route index decreased by 3.46% week - on - week, the CICFI increased by 1.32%, the SCFI increased by 2.1%, the NCFI increased by 6.02%, the CCFI decreased by 1.58%, the CFFI decreased by 4.99%, the SCFIS for European routes decreased by 8.71%, the SCFIS for the US West Coast route decreased by 5.87%, the SCFI for European routes decreased by 11.21%, the SCFI for the US West Coast route increased by 16.97%, and the SCFI for the US East Coast route increased by 9.68% [16]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of Trump's global tariff measures were illegal. China's Ministry of Commerce is actively promoting Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Hamas has expressed its willingness to reach a cease - fire agreement, but Israel's Prime Minister has refused [27]. - Negative Information: Trump is trying to break the negotiation deadlock between Israel and Hamas. The spot cabin quotes for European routes in early September by major shipping companies continue to decline, and the SCFI for European routes is accelerating its decline [28][29]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The release of China's official manufacturing PMI for August and the final manufacturing PMI values for August in Europe and the US at the beginning of September [29]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation * Basis Structure - The European route of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS) continued to decline, with the decline rate increasing to 8.71%. The basis between the main contract EC2510 and the spot market narrowed compared to the previous week. Traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [29]. * Monthly Spread Structure - The spreads of the inter - period contract combinations for European routes in container shipping (EC2510 - 2512, EC2510 - 2602, EC2512 - 2602) have converged. Traders can stay on the sidelines for now [31].