Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460.HK) with a target price of 15 HKD [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.206 billion HKD for H1 2025, a decrease of 18.52% year-on-year, and a net profit of 805 million HKD, down 28.63% year-on-year. The report highlights that the company is facing temporary operational pressure but emphasizes the importance of operational adjustments and beverage product development for long-term growth [1][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.521 billion HKD, with a decline to 11.872 billion HKD in 2025E, followed by a recovery to 13.069 billion HKD in 2026E and 14.052 billion HKD in 2027E [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 1.637 billion HKD in 2024 to 1.286 billion HKD in 2025E, before rising to 1.620 billion HKD in 2026E and 1.907 billion HKD in 2027E [3][14]. - Key Financial Ratios: - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.54 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.7 [3][14]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is 44.65%, indicating a moderate level of debt [4]. - H1 2025 Performance: - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 46.67%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 13.26%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [8][9]. Business Segment Performance - Beverage and Packaging Water: - The packaging water segment saw a revenue decline of 23.11% to 5.251 billion HKD, while the beverage segment grew by 21.28% to 955 million HKD in H1 2025. The report notes that the company is focusing on product series such as "Benqingrun" and "Moli Water" to drive growth [8][9]. - Cost Management: - The report indicates that while raw material prices have decreased, the overall revenue decline has weakened scale effects, leading to increased costs in sales and marketing efforts [8][9]. Strategic Outlook - The report suggests that despite the current operational challenges, the long-term growth logic remains intact. The company is focusing on inventory optimization, channel adjustments, and the introduction of new beverage products to enhance its market position [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of production efficiency improvements and the development of new beverage lines as key factors for future profitability [8][9].
华润饮料（02460）：阶段性经营承压，关注调整修复