Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][21]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 7.6% in the first half of 2025, indicating short-term pressure on its main business. However, the report remains optimistic about the company's enhanced attributes in the highway industry ETF [1][6]. - The company is recognized as a comprehensive highway operator with growth logic, benefiting from the integration advantages of a central enterprise platform and a history of acquiring quality road assets to enhance performance [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 12,711 million, with a growth rate of 30.6%. For 2025, revenue is expected to increase slightly to 12,889 million, reflecting a growth rate of 1.4% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 5,322 million in 2024, with a significant decline of 21.3%. However, it is expected to recover to 5,598 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.2% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.78 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.82 yuan in 2025, and further to 0.87 yuan in 2026 [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 12.43 yuan, representing a potential upside of 19% from the current price of 10.41 yuan [2][6]. Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 56.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.36% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of highway operations and differentiated toll policies [6]. - The investment operation segment generated revenue of 44.78 billion yuan, down 7.23% year-on-year, while the intelligent transportation segment saw a growth of 24.39% [6]. - The total mileage of highways operated by the company increased from 14,745 kilometers in 2024 to 14,865 kilometers in 2025, indicating ongoing expansion efforts [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report provides a profit forecast of 56.0 billion, 59.6 billion, and 63.5 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.87, and 0.93 yuan, and PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 respectively [6]. - The company has consistently increased its cash dividend payout ratio from 40.13% in 2018 to 53.44% in 2024, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [6].
招商公路（001965）：2025年中报点评：2025H1归母净利下降7.6%，主业短期承压，持续看好公司公路行业ETF增强属性