YTL(SZ:000960) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-01 06:18Group 1: Financial Futures - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Domestic prop - up policies are gradually exerting force. Promoting service consumption policies in September and real - estate policies are advancing. Overseas, the US economy shows resilience. The final effects of domestic policies need further observation, and attention should be paid to upcoming US economic data [1][2] - Summary by Related Catalogs: - Macroeconomics: Policies are being promoted both domestically and overseas. In China, service and real - estate policies are advancing, and manufacturing PMI slightly rebounds. In the US, economic data shows resilience, and there are tariff - related legal issues [1] - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar is slowing. In the short - term, it's about the rhythm of appreciation and has a low probability of returning to the "6 era". In the medium - term, it needs a decline in the US dollar index and improvement in the domestic economy [3][4][5] - Stock Index: After the release of two major data over the weekend, the market is expected to be volatile, with large - cap stock indices relatively stronger. It is recommended to hold long positions [7] - Treasury Bonds: After the release of August's manufacturing PMI, the bond market is not sensitive to fundamental data. If the stock market fluctuates at a high level, the bond market may rebound; otherwise, it may test the bottom again. It is recommended to take small - band bottom - fishing strategies [8][9] - Container Shipping: The decline in ONE's European - line spot cabin quotes is negative for futures prices. However, the ruling that Trump's global tariffs are illegal is positive for the global trade environment and EC prices. EC may show an oscillating or oscillating - upward trend [10][11] Group 2: Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, precious metals are affected by Fed rate - cut expectations and Fed independence concerns; copper is in a state of multi - factor balance; aluminum is affected by macro and fundamental factors [12][16][20] - Summary by Related Catalogs: - Gold & Silver: The price is mainly affected by Fed rate - cut expectations and Fed independence concerns. In the short - term, it is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions [12][13][15] - Copper: Before the Fed's next rate decision on September 19, copper prices may continue to oscillate. In the fourth quarter, it is recommended to buy at low levels. The price is affected by multiple factors such as Fed rate cuts, supply and demand [16][17][18] - Aluminum Industry Chain: - Aluminum: In the short - term, it is oscillating and bullish, but there is pressure above. It is recommended to build positions in batches on dips [20] - Alumina: It is weakly oscillating, with insufficient upward drive and limited downward space [21] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is oscillating and bullish, and can consider arbitrage operations [22] - Zinc: It is currently at the bottom and oscillating strongly in the short - term [22][23] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The market is oscillating this week, affected by macro and market factors. Nickel is expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan, and stainless steel between 12,500 - 13,100 yuan [23][26] - Tin: The price increase is driven by tight supply. It is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term, with a target price of 276,000 yuan per ton [27][28] - Lithium Carbonate: The futures market is expected to enter an oscillating and sorting stage. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [29][31] - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: - Industrial Silicon: It is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [32][34] - Polysilicon: It is expected to be oscillating and bullish due to industry integration expectations [33][35] - Lead: It is oscillating narrowly, with limited upward and downward space [36] Ferrous Metals - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The ferrous metal market is generally under pressure. Steel products have a weak supply - demand pattern, and iron ore has increasing risks, while coal - coke and ferroalloys also face different challenges [38][40][43] - Summary by Related Catalogs: - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The supply - demand pattern of steel products is weak, and a negative feedback mechanism may form. It is recommended to maintain a bearish strategy and pay attention to demand in the peak season and policy changes [38][39] - Iron Ore: Although the current fundamentals are stable, the pressure on steel inventory and iron ore shipments is increasing, and the risk of price decline is rising [40][41] - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market may oscillate widely at a high level, and coke may face price cuts after the parade. It is recommended to use an oscillating strategy for coking coal and consider selling hedging for coke [42][43] - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: The supply is loose, and they are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to consider a long - spread strategy for the two [44][45] Energy and Chemicals - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Different energy and chemical products have different market trends. Crude oil is oscillating weakly, and other products such as LPG, PTA - PX, etc. are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [46][53][55] - Summary by Related Catalogs: - Crude Oil: It is oscillating weakly. In September, there are negative factors such as seasonal decline in demand, and it is necessary to pay attention to key events and the Russia - Ukraine situation [46][48][49] - LPG: The market is oscillating. Supply is controllable, and demand changes little. The market is affected by multiple factors [50][51][52] - PTA - PX: The market is affected by supply - side news, and it is recommended to reduce the TA processing margin on rallies [53][54][55] - MEG - Bottle Chip: The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are driven weakly, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range and consider option strategies in the long - term [56][58][59] - Methanol: It is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options and pay attention to Iranian shipments and port pick - up [60][61] - PP: The demand situation is unclear. The supply is increasing, and the future depends on whether the demand can maintain high - speed growth [62][63][64] - PE: The demand is recovering but not strong enough to drive. It is expected to be in an oscillating pattern and wait for a demand signal [65][66] - PVC: The price returns to the industrial level. With weak fundamentals, it is recommended to maintain a short - position allocation [67][68] - Pure Benzene and Styrene: For pure benzene, the supply is stable, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. For styrene, inventory is increasing, and the outlook is bearish [69][70][71]