GCL TECH(HK:03800) Minsheng Securities·2025-09-01 07:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company's performance has shifted from profit to loss, primarily due to supply-demand mismatches in the industry and intensified competition leading to prices falling below cash costs. However, recent government initiatives aimed at reducing competition have shown early positive results, suggesting a potential rebound in performance as supply-side reforms continue [2]. - The average cash production cost of granular silicon has been decreasing, reaching 26.22 RMB/kg in the first half of 2025, with a further reduction to 25.31 RMB/kg in Q2 2025. The quality of products has significantly improved, with 91.8% of products meeting the standard of total metal impurities ≤1 ppbw, and the proportion of products with turbidity ≤70 NTU increasing from 25% in September 2024 to 57.4% in Q2 2025 [3]. - The company has successfully launched a GW-level perovskite production line, marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of perovskite photovoltaic technology. This project is noted for achieving several global records, including the largest single-junction and tandem perovskite modules and the highest efficiency for large-sized modules [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 12.594 billion RMB, 21.309 billion RMB, and 24.398 billion RMB, respectively. Net profits are expected to be -2.375 billion RMB in 2025, 838 million RMB in 2026, and 2.189 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [5][7]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in the company's market share, which was 24.32% in the first half of 2025, up 9.74 percentage points from the previous year, as the photovoltaic industry undergoes capacity clearing and the company continues to lower production costs [3][5].