LZLJ(SZ:000568) Huachuang Securities·2025-09-01 07:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao, with a target price of 206 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 16.45 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.66 billion CNY, down 4.5% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, total revenue was 7.10 billion CNY, down 8.0% year-on-year, and net profit was 3.07 billion CNY, down 11.1% year-on-year [2][7]. - The company is actively managing its inventory and pricing strategies, with a focus on reducing channel pressure and stabilizing core product pricing during the industry adjustment period. The company has also introduced a three-year dividend plan, aiming for a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% in 2024, 70% in 2025, and 75% in 2026, with a total dividend amount not less than 8.5 billion CNY [2][7][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Total revenue is projected to decline to 29.28 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.1%. The net profit is expected to be 12.28 billion CNY, down 8.9% year-on-year [3][11]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is forecasted to be 8.34 CNY in 2025, 8.15 CNY in 2026, and 9.01 CNY in 2027 [3][11]. - Valuation Ratios: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 16 in 2025, 17 in 2026, and 15 in 2027. The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 3.8 in 2025, 3.6 in 2026, and 3.3 in 2027 [3][11]. Market Performance - The company has seen a stable number of distributors, with a slight increase to 1,791 by the end of Q2 2025. The core markets in Southwest and North China are experiencing slight pressure, while regions like Northwest and Henan are still in an adjustment phase [2][7][8].