hbky(SH:600985) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-09-01 07:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 14.64 CNY [4][11]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to declining market demand, and it is currently experiencing the most significant year-on-year pressure. However, it is identified as a growth stock in the coking coal sector, with potential industry growth expected in 2025-2026 [2][11]. - The company has shown signs of recovery in coal production and sales, with a notable increase in output in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, indicating a potential improvement in performance in Q3 2025 [11]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 20.682 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 44.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.032 billion CNY, down 64.85% year-on-year [11]. - The average selling price of coking coal in Q2 2025 was 747 CNY/ton, a decrease of 364 CNY/ton year-on-year, while the cost per ton decreased to 425 CNY/ton, showing effective cost control [11]. - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in performance in Q3 2025 due to increased sales volume and price adjustments [11]. Production and Sales Insights - In H1 2025, the company produced 8.908 million tons of commodity coal, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%, with sales of 6.476 million tons, down 19.38% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a production increase to 4.6 million tons, up from 4.3 million tons in Q1 2025 [11]. - The company’s coking business remained stable, with H1 2025 production of 1.7 million tons and sales of 1.68 million tons, while the average selling price dropped by 33% year-on-year [11]. Future Growth Potential - The company is positioned as a growth stock in the coking coal sector, with expected industry increments in 2025-2026. New projects, including a DMC project and a methanol utilization project, are set to contribute to future production capacity [11][12].