JONJEE(SH:600872) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-09-01 08:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company's revenue decline in Q2 has narrowed compared to previous quarters, with soy sauce and other product revenues showing signs of recovery [2] - The major shareholder's plan to increase their stake in the company reflects confidence in its long-term development [5] - The company is expected to experience a revenue decrease in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years, with a projected net profit recovery [6] Revenue Analysis - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%, and a net profit of 260 million yuan, down 26.6% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.03 billion yuan, a decline of 9.1%, with a net profit of 80 million yuan, down 31.6% [1] - Revenue breakdown by product for H1 2025 shows soy sauce at 1.3 billion yuan (-16.7%), chicken essence at 260 million yuan (-22.0%), cooking oil at 110 million yuan (-49.4%), and other products at 330 million yuan (-3.2%) [2] - Revenue by sales model indicates a decline in distribution revenue by 20.1% to 1.89 billion yuan, while direct sales increased by 35.7% to 100 million yuan in H1 2025 [2] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin improved to 39.0% in H1 2025, up 2.4 percentage points, while the net margin decreased to 12.1%, down 2.6 percentage points [4] - In Q2 2025, the gross margin further improved to 39.4%, with a net margin of 7.4%, reflecting the impact of lower raw material costs [4] Shareholder Confidence - The major shareholder, Huojuzhong Group, plans to increase its stake by investing between 200 million and 400 million yuan over the next 12 months, indicating strong confidence in the company's future [5] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to generate revenues of 5.05 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 8.5%, followed by increases of 9.7% and 8.4% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [6] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 740 million yuan, down 17.3%, with expected recoveries of 16.0% and 11.7% in the following years [6]