GUJING(SZ:000596) Huachuang Securities·2025-09-01 08:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu (000596) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.66 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year. However, Q2 revenue decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, and net profit fell by 11.6% [1][7] - The company is focusing on practical operations and inventory clearance, actively relieving pressure on channels and supporting distributors [7] - The report highlights the company's strong marketing capabilities and solid domestic market foundation, suggesting it may emerge from industry adjustments ahead of competitors [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 23.578 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.4%. However, a decline of 7.6% is expected in 2025 [3][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.518 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 20.2%, but a decline of 8.1% is anticipated in 2025 [3][11] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 10.44 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 9.59 yuan in 2025 [3][11] Market Performance - The company’s stock price target is set at 300 yuan, while the current price is 171.30 yuan [3] - The total market capitalization is approximately 90.549 billion yuan [4] Operational Insights - In H1 2025, the company’s cash flow from operations increased by 48.4%, indicating improved cash management despite revenue declines [7] - The company is actively managing its inventory and has reduced contract liabilities by 22.5% from Q1, reflecting a strategic focus on channel support and inventory clearance [7]