Report Summary 1. Core View - The core contradictions include the normalization of auctions, with low - price auction grains impacting the supply and price system in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is a lack of short - term bullish support factors, and the expected mid - term demand improvement is less than the pressure from the new season's listing. The concentration of short positions in the November contract has increased, showing a clear bearish attitude [3]. - Bullish factors are that the bottom - level remaining grain is almost exhausted, and the inventory clearance of traders is relatively small, which restricts the price decline. Also, the gradually recovering concentrated consumption scenarios are expected to boost the edible consumption demand [5]. - Bearish factors are the expected improvement in the quality and yield of new - season soybeans, which will lead to a concentrated supply increase and put continuous pressure on prices. Low - price auction grains are impacting the price system of old - season commercial grains, and the normalization of auctions continuously supplements market supply. Additionally, when the futures price rebounds, long - side positions are reduced, and some short - side seats continue to increase short positions [5]. 2. Price Data - From August 28 to August 29, 2025, the closing prices of most soybean contracts increased, with the November contract rising from 3927 to 3945 (up 18, or 0.46%), the January contract rising from 3931 to 3948 (up 17, or 0.43%), the March contract rising from 3937 to 3950 (up 13, or 0.33%), the May contract rising from 3980 to 3995 (up 15, or 0.38%), and the July contract rising from 3984 to 3999 (up 15, or 0.38%). The September contract decreased from 4092 to 4080 (down 12, or - 0.29%) [4]. 3. Risk Strategies - Inventory Management for Long Positions - For planting entities with high demand for selling new soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure and price suppression, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean futures (contract A2511), with a short - side position ratio of 30% and an entry price range of 4000 - 4050 [2]. - When there is a large - scale listing and the seller's bargaining power weakens, it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price, with a selling ratio of 30% and an entry price range of 50 - 60 [2]. - Procurement Management for Short Positions - For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, since the probability of price decline is relatively large, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider contracts A2603 and A2605, with a long - side position, and wait for the autumn price guidance [2].
南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20250901