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招商港口(001872):2025H1业绩+3.1%,海外港口成为核心增长引擎,重视海外港口战略资产价值

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][21]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 3.1% in the first half of 2025, with overseas ports becoming the core growth engine, highlighting the strategic asset value of overseas ports [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's overseas port strategy, which is expected to enhance its long-term performance and stability [6]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 16,146 million yuan, with a slight increase of 0.1% compared to 2024 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 4,606 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 2.0% year-on-year [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.84 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11 times [2]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to be 204,191 million yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 47.1% [11]. Operational Highlights - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a container throughput of 10,120.7 million TEU, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [9]. - The overseas container business showed significant growth, with LCT, TICT, and Kumport container throughput increasing by 19.3%, 24.6%, and 16.9% respectively [6]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 45.73%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio decreased by 3.58 percentage points [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains profit forecasts of 4,606 million yuan for 2025, 4,865 million yuan for 2026, and 5,116 million yuan for 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.84, 1.94, and 2.05 yuan [6]. - A target price of 25.69 yuan is set for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of 20.52 yuan [2][6].