YILI(SH:600887) BOCOM International·2025-09-01 08:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887 CH) with a target price of RMB 34.50, indicating a potential upside of 20.7% from the current closing price of RMB 28.57 [2][8][12]. Core Insights - The company's 2Q25 performance exceeded expectations, with liquid milk business showing steady growth. The first half of 2025 saw total revenue and net profit increase by 3.4% and 31.8% year-on-year, reaching RMB 61.93 billion and RMB 7.16 billion, respectively [3][8]. - Profitability improved, with a gross margin increase of 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, primarily due to favorable raw milk costs. The management effectively controlled expenses, leading to a significant reduction in the sales expense ratio [8][9]. - The report highlights the resilience of the company's operations, with a stable market share in liquid milk and potential for profit elasticity if the current low milk price cycle turns around [8][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for 2025 have been adjusted downwards by 6.5% to RMB 119,064 million, with net profit estimates reduced by 6-7% to RMB 110-121 billion for 2025-26 [9][14]. - The company is expected to maintain a net profit margin of around 9% for the year, which management believes is achievable [8][9]. - The financial data indicates a projected revenue growth of 2.8% in 2025, followed by 3.4% and 3.2% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][14]. Business Segment Performance - The liquid milk segment reported a revenue decline of 2.1% in the first half of 2025, but the second quarter showed a narrowing decline of 0.8% [8][9]. - The infant formula and dairy products segment achieved a revenue increase of 14.3% year-on-year, with expectations for further growth in the second half of the year due to promotional activities [8][9]. - The ice cream business also showed a recovery with a revenue increase of 12.4%, indicating a return to double-digit growth [8][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding into emerging channels and lower-tier markets, launching high-quality products to maintain its market share [8][9]. - The management anticipates a better balance between supply and demand in the second half of the year, which could positively impact pricing and sales [8][9].