TONGWEI CO.,LTD(SH:600438) Guotou Securities·2025-09-01 09:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for the company, with a 6-month target price of 23.70 CNY [4][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in the industry, driven by supply-side reforms and favorable policies, indicating a high certainty of a fundamental reversal in the industry [4]. - The company has a diversified business model, with significant capabilities in both aquaculture feed and photovoltaic (PV) sectors, making it a global leader in both areas [1][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a strong production capacity, with over 13 million tons of annual feed production, more than 900,000 tons of high-purity polysilicon, and over 150 GW of solar cell production capacity [1][14]. - The company has a history of strategic expansions, including entering the PV industry in 2006 and acquiring key assets to enhance its market position [14]. Photovoltaic Industry - The global PV market is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase in global installed capacity from 600 GW in 2025 to 730 GW in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.2% [49]. - The report highlights the declining costs of PV generation, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for ground-mounted PV systems expected to fall below 0.25 CNY per kWh by 2025 [43][44]. Company Business Segments - The company has a leading position in the polysilicon market, achieving a global market share of approximately 30% in the first half of 2025, with a significant reduction in production costs [2][22]. - In the solar cell segment, the company maintained its position as the world's largest producer, with sales of 49.89 GW in the first half of 2025, and a cumulative shipment exceeding 300 GW [2][3]. - The company has invested in a global innovation research center to enhance its technological capabilities across various PV technologies, including TOPCon and HJT [3]. Financial Analysis - The company is expected to experience revenue growth rates of -6.3%, 25.3%, and 14.5% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of -23.7%, 160.3%, and 39.8% during the same period [4][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -1.19 CNY in 2025, 0.72 CNY in 2026, and 1.00 CNY in 2027, indicating a turnaround in profitability by 2026 [4][6].