Luxi Chemical(SZ:000830) Great Wall Securities·2025-09-01 10:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][9][17]. Core Views - The company's performance is currently under pressure due to a decline in the prices of its main products, which has led to a significant drop in profitability. However, there is potential for recovery as prices of key flexible products are expected to rebound [2][9]. - The company reported a revenue of 14.739 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.98%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 34.81% to 763 million yuan [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 32.644 billion yuan, 34.771 billion yuan, and 37.592 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 9.7%, 6.5%, and 8.1% [1][9]. - Net Profit Forecast: The expected net profits for the same period are 1.844 billion yuan, 2.434 billion yuan, and 3.223 billion yuan, with growth rates of -9.1%, 32.0%, and 32.4% [1][9]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The projected EPS for 2025-2027 are 0.96 yuan, 1.27 yuan, and 1.68 yuan, respectively [1][9]. - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: The P/E ratios for the next three years are expected to be 14.7, 11.2, and 8.4 times [1][9]. - Return on Equity (ROE): The ROE is projected to improve from 9.2% in 2025 to 13.9% in 2027 [1][9]. Product Performance - The company's revenue from various segments in the first half of 2025 was as follows: chemical new materials (9.738 billion yuan), basic chemicals (2.964 billion yuan), fertilizers (1.777 billion yuan), and others (260 million yuan), with year-on-year growth rates of 2.39%, 5.14%, 22.36%, and 0.74%, respectively [2]. - The gross margins for these segments were 11.43%, 22.12%, 5.84%, and 12.03%, showing a decline in the chemical new materials segment [2]. Cash Flow Analysis - The net cash flow from operating activities in the first half of 2025 was 3.192 billion yuan, an increase of 37.51% year-on-year [3]. - The net cash flow from investing activities was -813 million yuan, while financing activities resulted in a net cash outflow of -2.411 billion yuan [3].