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国投电力(600886):火电提质+水电稳健,多元能源协同支撑业绩韧性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in performance supported by quality thermal power and stable hydropower, with a multi-energy collaboration [4] - The decline in electricity prices is attributed to structural changes, including a decrease in thermal power generation and an increase in non-subsidized renewable energy projects [2] - The hydropower segment shows strong performance, with a notable increase in generation and profitability, particularly from the Yalong River hydropower assets [2][4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 568.12 billion, 603.89 billion, and 633.47 billion yuan, respectively, with a slight decline in 2025 [4][9] - The net profit for the same period is expected to be 70.17 billion, 75.36 billion, and 78.50 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 5.6%, 7.4%, and 4.2% [9] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.88, 0.94, and 0.98 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9] Operational Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 25.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.18%, while net profit increased by 1.36% to 3.795 billion yuan [1] - The total power generation in the first half of 2025 was 77.059 billion kWh, a slight decrease of 0.54% year-on-year, with a significant drop in thermal power generation by 21.10% [2][3] - The hydropower segment's generation increased by 10.3% year-on-year, showcasing the robustness of the company's hydropower assets [2][3]