Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-01 11:00Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic supply-demand situation of urea remains weak. Towards the weekend, due to the positive expectations of demand after the military parade and the Indian tender, the low-price transactions in some regions improved significantly, and upstream quotes were tentatively raised. The new round of Indian urea tender on September 2nd is generally considered bullish, and attention should be paid to the 15 reverse spread opportunity. In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side to some extent. Although factory inventory and pending orders pressure increase, with the opening of the export channel, there may be a phased rebound. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 [4]. - Urea exports have been confirmed. In a market with strong speculative sentiment, urea futures are mainly priced speculatively, so they are expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with stronger downside support [4]. - Domestic policies suppress the market. The association requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on spot sentiment [4]. 2. Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Urea | 1650 - 1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | Methanol | 2250 - 2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | Polypropylene | 6800 - 7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | Plastic | 6800 - 7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | [3] 3. Urea Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - Scenario: High finished - product inventory, worried about urea price decline. - Strategy 1: Short urea futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to inventory. Sell UR2601 and buy UR2601P1850, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 1800 - 1950. - Strategy 2: Buy put options to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs. Sell UR2601C1950, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 45 - 60 [3]. Procurement Management - Scenario: Low procurement of regular inventory, hope to purchase according to orders. - Strategy 1: Buy urea futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. Buy UR2601, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 1650 - 1750. - Strategy 2: Sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the urea price drops, the purchase price of spot urea can be locked. Sell UR2601P1650, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [3].