Baolong Automotive(SH:603197) CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-09-01 11:22Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.95 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.15% to 135 million yuan [7] - The gross margin has slightly declined, while the expense ratios have decreased: the gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 21.8%, down by 5.1 percentage points; the sales expense ratio was 3.1%, down by 0.4 percentage points; the management expense ratio was 5.3%, down by 1.7 percentage points; and the R&D expense ratio was 7.4%, down by 1.1 percentage points [7] - Significant revenue growth was observed in the intelligent suspension business, with a 50.22% increase to 637 million yuan; the TPMS & accessories and tools business revenue rose by 22.69% to 1.209 billion yuan; while the automotive metal pipe business revenue decreased by 0.94% to 743 million yuan [7] - The company has entered into strategic partnerships to expand its market presence, including collaborations with Weifu High Technology and JAC Motors [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 509 million, 725 million, and 887 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.9, 11.1, and 9.1 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 5.897 billion yuan, 2024A: 7.025 billion yuan, 2025E: 8.651 billion yuan, 2026E: 10.723 billion yuan, 2027E: 13.321 billion yuan, with growth rates of 23.4%, 19.1%, 23.2%, 23.9%, and 24.2% respectively [6][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow significantly in 2025, with a forecast of 509 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 68.3% [6][8] - The company's EPS is expected to increase from 1.82 yuan in 2023 to 4.15 yuan in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend [6][8] - The company's ROE is projected to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 17.8% in 2027, showcasing enhanced profitability [6][8]