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保利置业集团(00119):营收同比增长,但业绩仍承压;毛利率回升,偿债能力优化,“三道红线”指标全面转绿

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience during the current deep adjustment cycle in the industry, with significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition. Its debt structure continues to improve, and it is well-positioned for future growth [5]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 18.44 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.1%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.3% to 210 million RMB [4][7][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 18.44 billion RMB in H1 2025, up 48.1% year-on-year, driven by increased project completions and revenue recognition [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 210 million RMB, down 44.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant decline in investment income [7][16]. - The gross margin improved to 17.5%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased to 1.1%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [13][16]. Debt and Financial Health - As of June 30, 2025, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of 68.2 billion RMB, a decrease of 8.6% year-on-year. The debt structure has improved, with the proportion of short-term debt decreasing to 26% [25][29]. - The company successfully transitioned from a "yellow" to a "green" status under the "three red lines" policy, indicating improved financial health [7][29]. Sales and Market Position - The company ranked 15th in sales within the industry for the first seven months of 2025, with a sales amount of 29.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year [40]. - The average selling price increased by 6.1% year-on-year to 27,900 RMB per square meter [42]. - The company has a strong focus on quality project expansion, acquiring 9 land parcels in H1 2025, with a total land reserve of 13.08 million square meters [38][46]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a sales target of 50 billion RMB for 2025, having achieved 59% of this target by July 2025 [40]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 39.0 billion RMB, 40.4 billion RMB, and 40.9 billion RMB, with corresponding net profits of 180 million RMB, 190 million RMB, and 200 million RMB [5][47].