BABA(US:BABA) Soochow Securities·2025-09-01 11:34Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the financial products industry [1] Core Insights - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a cumulative increase of 4.06% in August, characterized by a "spiral upward" trend, with significant fluctuations driven by macroeconomic data and corporate earnings reports [7][12] - As of August 29, 2025, the Hang Seng Technology Index's PE-TTM was 21.23 times, indicating a relatively low historical valuation and suggesting higher safety margins and potential for value appreciation [18] - The index's risk level adjusted to 82.31, indicating support from below and a gradual upward trend, although short-term volatility is expected [21] Market Performance Review - Trend Review: The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 4.06% from August 1 to August 29, with a trading volume of approximately 15,932 billion [12] - Valuation Analysis: The PE-TTM of the index was 21.23, at the 17.70% historical percentile, indicating a low relative valuation [18] - Technical Analysis: The risk level of the index was adjusted to 82.31, with support from below and some upward pressure from above [21] Event-Driven Review - Macroeconomic Factors: Weak U.S. employment data triggered recession and interest rate cut expectations, positively impacting the valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index [23] - Policy Factors: The July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, but hawkish signals from the Fed impacted liquidity in the Hong Kong market [32] - Industry Factors: Ongoing price wars in the food delivery sector and AI model iterations have affected profitability and market sentiment [37] Index Outlook - Key Event Forecast: Future performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index will be influenced by macroeconomic data and policy developments [48] - Index Performance Outlook: High probability of interest rate cuts in September, with expectations of foreign capital inflows, suggesting potential upward movement for the index [55] - Related ETF Products: The Huaxia Hang Seng Technology ETF (513180) closely tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, with a total market value of 38.258 billion as of August 29, 2025 [56]